Demographic Dividend : Myth Or Reality.............

One of the prime driving factors of Indian economy is its demographic dividend. Experts comparing growth prospects of Indian and Chinese economies are betting high on the younger India over aging China.  As the recent studies affirm, India will be the youngest nations with the average age in late twenties.  There will be addition of 200 Mn youngsters in the Indian economy in next 20 years from 2011-2030. 

With the great Indian growth story of the last decade, economist across the world have singled out demographic dividend as the most important factor in realizing the long awaited dream of emerging as an economic superpower.

The demographic dividend is competitive advantage to any economy as it means less no of dependents which in turn helps in increasing the productivity which directly results in a favourable impact on the GDP of the country. 

In recent times China has been successful in exploiting demographic dividend to its fullest potential. It has emerged as the world manufacturing hub. Today’s world Economic & Geo-political policies cannot be designed without reference to China. 

Economist across the world have forecast that India will be the next superpower, fundamentally  based on the promising growth witnessed after the opening of Indian economy and stable socio-political environment with huge FDI and obliviously demographic dividend.

In above all the demographic dividend have two sides to it. It may backfire and would do more damage to the country’s economy, If not managed properly.

The series of events in last couple of years have halted growth story of India. There have been large number of corruption cases which has virtually halted decision making at each level, there is complete policy paralysis due to coalition govt., important bills like land reforms, coal & mining, FDI in retail and lokpal to control corruption are pending since long, foreign investment is drying up on account of international events, the increasing twin deficits & stalemate on reforms initiative by the government. 

On the backdrop of this economic scenario the demographic advantage would be burden than the dividend. There will be addition of 10-12 Mn youngsters every year in economy for next 20 years looking for employment. To provide employment opportunity to such large number will be herculean task and India can not afford the price of failing to do so. Failing will not only impact India economically but will cause the imbalance in the society at large.

There is need for  strategic planning at each level of employment generation starting from education, entrepreneurship  and reforms in all three sectors of Indian economy.  

Currently, only 30 % land is irrigated, yields are all time low which makes today’s youth no longer interested in making a career in farming. The manufacturing hub seems to be distant reality without land acquisition reforms and ensuring the availability of very basic utilities power & water to industries to flourish.

The IT & ITES sector which has played crucial role in India’s growth story is losing out major chunk of business process outsourcing business to small countries like Taiwan and Thailand as India is no longer amongst the  lowest cost service providers.

So far young India has been promising and have grabbed whatever opportunities been offered to them. Young Indians have been successful in leaving their mark of excellence in every field they have been into. 

Today’s youth is well informed, educated, more dynamic, creative, competitive and have zeal to excel. If provided with right opportunity there will be no stopping for India to be emerging as developed country in near future otherwise demographic dividend will be just a Myth in case of India.