One of the prime driving factors of Indian economy is its demographic
dividend. Experts comparing growth prospects of Indian and Chinese economies
are betting high on the younger India over aging China. As the recent studies affirm, India will be
the youngest nations with the average age in late twenties. There will be addition of 200 Mn youngsters
in the Indian economy in next 20 years from 2011-2030.
With the great Indian growth story of the last decade, economist
across the world have singled out demographic dividend as the most important
factor in realizing the long awaited dream of emerging as an economic
superpower.
The demographic dividend is competitive advantage to any
economy as it means less no of dependents which in turn helps in increasing the
productivity which directly results in a favourable impact on the GDP of the
country.
In recent times China has been successful in exploiting
demographic dividend to its fullest potential. It has emerged as the world
manufacturing hub. Today’s world Economic & Geo-political policies cannot
be designed without reference to China.
Economist across the world have forecast that India will be
the next superpower, fundamentally based
on the promising growth witnessed after the opening of Indian economy and
stable socio-political environment with huge FDI and obliviously demographic
dividend.
In above all the demographic dividend have two sides to it. It
may backfire and would do more damage to the country’s economy, If not managed
properly.
The series of events in last couple of years have halted
growth story of India. There have been large number of corruption cases which
has virtually halted decision making at each level, there is complete policy
paralysis due to coalition govt., important bills like land reforms, coal &
mining, FDI in retail and lokpal to control corruption are pending since long,
foreign investment is drying up on account of international events, the
increasing twin deficits & stalemate on reforms initiative by the
government.
On the backdrop of this economic scenario the demographic
advantage would be burden than the dividend. There will be addition of 10-12 Mn
youngsters every year in economy for next 20 years looking for employment. To provide
employment opportunity to such large number will be herculean task and India can
not afford the price of failing to do so. Failing will not only impact India
economically but will cause the imbalance in the society at large.
There is need for strategic planning at each level of employment
generation starting from education, entrepreneurship and reforms in all three sectors of Indian
economy.
Currently, only 30 % land is irrigated, yields are all time
low which makes today’s youth no longer interested in making a career in
farming. The manufacturing hub seems to be distant reality without land
acquisition reforms and ensuring the availability of very basic utilities power
& water to industries to flourish.
The IT & ITES sector which has played crucial role in India’s
growth story is losing out major chunk of business process outsourcing business
to small countries like Taiwan and Thailand as India is no longer amongst
the lowest cost service providers.
So far young India has been promising and have grabbed whatever
opportunities been offered to them. Young Indians have been successful in
leaving their mark of excellence in every field they have been into.
Today’s youth is well informed, educated, more dynamic,
creative, competitive and have zeal to excel. If provided with right
opportunity there will be no stopping for India to be emerging as developed
country in near future otherwise demographic dividend will be just a Myth in
case of India.
